The report, released by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM), says that, in 2025, developers submitted new or reactivated proposals to build a total of 161 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power plants …
The co-authors argue that while clean-energy growth may limit emissions from coal power in the short term, the surge in proposals could lock in new coal assets, “weaken…incentives” for power-system reform and help keep coal capacity online in spite of China’s climate goals.
The high rate of new proposals, the study says, likely reflects a “rush by the coal industry stakeholders” to develop projects before an expected tightening of climate policy in the next five years …
A lot of proposals, but not a lot of approvals. Time will tell if their commitment to decarbonize holds but the fact developers are making proposals does not imply they’ll actually get approved. China is nowhere near as dependent on private corporate interests approval to maintain power and their clean energy export strategy is dependent on demonstrating domestic capacity gains.
Steel and concrete are the only industries that are going to continue to be coal dependent in the foreseeable future. China is already investing heavily in new plasma drilling tech for tapping deep, closed loop geothermal to augment nuclear, solar, hydroelectric and wind capacity. If Chinese battery tech continues to improve sufficiently to increase build out of utility grade power storage facilities, they’ll have more than enough capacity to continue to wean off coal for power. Their power grid makes the North American grid look positively quaint and backward already.
the fact developers are making proposals does not imply they’ll actually get approved
The vast majority of such proposals are getting approved, and the report finds that the approvals for coal power “continue to reflect expectations of high operating hours."
This comes as China already burns more than half of the world’s coal, and it has been increasing its coal production as well as its coal imports and coal consumption. A record of 95GW were already added to the grid last year and another 291GW are in the pipeline. These Chinese coal plants are already operating, and they are large-scale units.
According to the co-authors, this is the “reverse of what we see outside China, where roughly two-thirds of proposed coal capacity never makes it to construction”.
Therefore, the assumption that China having a decentralized grid of renewables is simply wrong.
If Chinese battery tech continues to improve sufficiently to increase build out of utility grade power storage facilities
Since you may have read about this, do you know if sodium-ion plays into this? The first commercial cells I’ve seen go for LFP prices on Ali but I’m guessing that’s far from representative of what they cost B2B and they’re supposed to be getting much cheaper than LFP.
Right now the Sodium-ion tech is still in its infancy. It’s higher priced than it will be as the market scales. I expect it will find more use in stationary storage capacity than mobile devices as it’s power density is a bit lower, but the material cost is much lower and therefore potentially useful for utility grade or home power banks. It’s theoretically able to benefit from a lot of the same technology that Lithium cell batteries use, so cross-chemistry innovation potential is high.
Yes. Could be exciting in the near future. As the article points out, it’s a bit less power dense than lithium, and has a slightly worse power to weight ratio, but that doesn’t necessarily make it bad, it’s just better suited for different market niches than lithium. I could see urban cab companies and other short range fleet uses preferring sodium-ion, as they’ll have a higher rate of cycling and wear, and the cheaper cost of a battery will represent a significant net benefit. I think consumer grade vehicles are going to prefer Lithium for the foreseeable future though.
The long-term bet doesn’t look too much different as China will burn coal for a long time to come. Even the government itself admits that as proposals to build coal-fired plants in China reached a record high in 2025:
A lot of proposals, but not a lot of approvals. Time will tell if their commitment to decarbonize holds but the fact developers are making proposals does not imply they’ll actually get approved. China is nowhere near as dependent on private corporate interests approval to maintain power and their clean energy export strategy is dependent on demonstrating domestic capacity gains.
Steel and concrete are the only industries that are going to continue to be coal dependent in the foreseeable future. China is already investing heavily in new plasma drilling tech for tapping deep, closed loop geothermal to augment nuclear, solar, hydroelectric and wind capacity. If Chinese battery tech continues to improve sufficiently to increase build out of utility grade power storage facilities, they’ll have more than enough capacity to continue to wean off coal for power. Their power grid makes the North American grid look positively quaint and backward already.
The vast majority of such proposals are getting approved, and the report finds that the approvals for coal power “continue to reflect expectations of high operating hours."
This comes as China already burns more than half of the world’s coal, and it has been increasing its coal production as well as its coal imports and coal consumption. A record of 95GW were already added to the grid last year and another 291GW are in the pipeline. These Chinese coal plants are already operating, and they are large-scale units.
According to the co-authors, this is the “reverse of what we see outside China, where roughly two-thirds of proposed coal capacity never makes it to construction”.
Therefore, the assumption that China having a decentralized grid of renewables is simply wrong.
Since you may have read about this, do you know if sodium-ion plays into this? The first commercial cells I’ve seen go for LFP prices on Ali but I’m guessing that’s far from representative of what they cost B2B and they’re supposed to be getting much cheaper than LFP.
Right now the Sodium-ion tech is still in its infancy. It’s higher priced than it will be as the market scales. I expect it will find more use in stationary storage capacity than mobile devices as it’s power density is a bit lower, but the material cost is much lower and therefore potentially useful for utility grade or home power banks. It’s theoretically able to benefit from a lot of the same technology that Lithium cell batteries use, so cross-chemistry innovation potential is high.
Just came acoss this. A density of 175Whr/kg in mass produced EVs.
Yes. Could be exciting in the near future. As the article points out, it’s a bit less power dense than lithium, and has a slightly worse power to weight ratio, but that doesn’t necessarily make it bad, it’s just better suited for different market niches than lithium. I could see urban cab companies and other short range fleet uses preferring sodium-ion, as they’ll have a higher rate of cycling and wear, and the cheaper cost of a battery will represent a significant net benefit. I think consumer grade vehicles are going to prefer Lithium for the foreseeable future though.
Yeah. Probably buses too. What’s really exciting for me is the significant potential for lowering total vehicle cost.